Executive Summary:
- Vancouver's real estate market prices rose, while sales declined.
- The average house price in the Greater Vancouver area is $1,318,687, slightly increasing.
- In March 2024, the benchmark price for homes in the Greater Vancouver area was $1,196,800, slightly increasing.
- Vancouver's benchmark house price has increased by nearly 30% over four years, but is 5.2% lower than the historical peak of $1,262,600 in April 2022.
- The average price of detached homes rose by 1.8% year-over-year to $2.21 million.
- The average price of townhouses rose by 6.9% year-over-year to $1.28 million.
- The average price of apartments increased by 4.6% year-over-year to $823,000.
Residential property sales in Metro Vancouver （Source: gvrealtors）
Market Overview:
In March 2024, the Greater Vancouver area listed 5,002 new single-family, attached, and apartment properties for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), up 15.9% from 4,317 listings in March 2023.
The total number of properties listed for sale on the MLS® in the Greater Vancouver area currently stands at 10,552, up 22.5% from 8,617 in March 2023. This is 6.3% higher than the 10-year seasonal average of 9,923.
Across all property types (detached, attached, and apartments), the sales-to-active listings ratio for March 2024 is 23.8%. By property type, the ratio is 18.2% for detached homes, 31.3% for townhouses, and 25.8% for apartments.
Historical data analysis shows that when this ratio consistently falls below 12%, prices tend to face downward pressure; conversely, when the ratio exceeds 20% for several months, prices often face upward pressure.
(Source: gvrealtors)
Price Changes:
Despite the market not being as hot as last year, we still observed an overall month-over-month price increase of 1% to 2%.
Currently, the MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in the Greater Vancouver area is $1,196,800. This represents a 4.5% increase from March 2023 and a 1.1% increase from February 2024.
Trends by Property Type:
- Detached homes: Sales were 694, a decline of 5.4% from last year. The benchmark price was $2,007,900, with an annual increase of 7.4% and a monthly increase of 1.8%.
- Apartments: Sales were 1,207, down 7.9% from last year. The benchmark price was $777,500, with an annual increase of 5.7% and a monthly increase of 0.9%.
- Townhouses: Sales were 495, down 7.9% from last year. The benchmark price was $1,112,800, with an annual increase of 5% and a monthly increase of 1.7%.
(Source: gvrealtors)
Nebula's Insights:
Given the data, it appears that real estate prices in Greater Vancouver are on an upward trend throughout the spring, and due to an increase in housing inventory coupled with decreased sales, buyers actually have more options available. However, the continual rise in housing costs poses a serious challenge to affordability. The government has been introducing new policies to alleviate these issues, such as low-rent housing under the BC Builder program, various housing subsidies for low-income groups, and the implementation of a "speculation tax" to curb malicious price increases. Whether these measures can address the fundamental problems remains to be seen.
With inflation data under control, we may see the Bank of Canada make at least one or two slight interest rate cuts in 2024. However, even if rate cuts occur, they might not immediately boost the market significantly since many people still cannot afford the high prices of homes. These are challenges the government needs to address.
